Currently, China’s military exercises surrounding Taiwan have a very clear ramification for Japan, and it’s hard to imagine how Japan could respond to a potential situation such as this. In this article, we explore the legal framework Japan can use to address such a scenario, and what Japan should do if it does become a contingency.
China’s military exercises encircling Taiwan have clear ramifications for Japan
During the past few days, China’s military has launched missiles and carried out large-scale military exercises around Taiwan. These drills are designed to test and demonstrate China’s military capabilities and ability to target Japanese troops in the region. They are also intended to alert Japan of possible conflict.
The exercise is expected to run through Sunday. The drills include missile launches and coordinated activities on water and land. The areas in which the drills take place overlap with Taiwan’s territorial waters and airspace.
The drills are being carried out in six different locations around Taiwan. The locations include the Nansei Islands, which stretch southwest from Kyushu towards the self-ruled island. These islands have been a source of tension in the past. Taiwan’s defence ministry said it was closely monitoring the drills and reaffirmed the principle of not escalating conflicts.
China’s latest exercises were designed to test the capabilities of the country’s military and to warn Japan of possible conflict. But they also show China’s intent to encircle Taiwan.
China’s military has carried out drills for the past four days, but has not said when the exercises will end. They include long-range rocket launches and conventional missile tests. The exercises also include repeated crossings of the median line, a boundary line which has been respected by both sides for decades.
On Saturday, Chinese military detected 20 aircraft and detected and spotted 14 of them crossing the median line. During the drills, China also launched ballistic missiles and carried out coordinated activities on land and water.
The United States and its allies condemned China’s drills, including the launch of ballistic missiles. Some missiles landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone. The Chinese foreign ministry dismissed Japan’s protests, stating that the “indirect targeting” of Japan has no impact on Japan.
The United States and its allies will likely increase the number of their troops in Taiwan and sell offensive weapons to Taiwan. But America has not specified how it would intervene in the event of a conflict. It will be up to the United States to tailor its response.
Japan should start a two-year term on the Security Council
Throughout the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine, Tokyo has sought to strengthen its security relationships with both regional and European partners. It has also been developing its command and control capabilities and air mobility. As a result, it is now moving toward a more robust position on Taiwan defense. In response to Chinese threats against Taiwan, Tokyo has issued bold public statements of support for Taipei. However, these statements may not necessarily be enough to build a foundation for Japanese action.
Japan’s security officials have been anxious about the growing Chinese threat. Their response has included a rebalance away from Cold War missions in the Hokkaido area and increased air mobility. They have also sought to increase awareness of the threat and have called for a broader liberal and rules-based order.
China’s aggressive military buildup is escalating its incursions into Japan’s territorial waters. It is also stepping up its intimidation strategy against its neighbors in the East China Sea. It has been sending fighter jets around Taiwan, a clear threat to the island’s safety and security.
Japan’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine was forceful and quick. Its response to Chinese threats against Taiwan has been equally quick. Tokyo has not ruled out direct military involvement in a conflict to defend Taiwan. However, it is likely that its ruling Liberal Democratic Party will resist such a move. Its populace remains risk-averse and does not support a stronger security role in the region.
In the future, the Japanese government will need to overcome legislative resistance to any shift in policy. In the meantime, it is likely that Japan’s security role in the region will continue to be constrained by a variety of legal and operational constraints.
As a result, it is necessary to work together to resolve these obstacles. Tokyo and Washington should work to ensure that bilateral missions are clearly delineated. They should also work to overcome Japan’s impediments to rapid action. A trilateral contingency-planning session with Taiwan should be established.
In order to make these decisions quickly and effectively, Tokyo and Washington should coordinate their responses to China. They should also identify complementary missions and roles. In addition, they should synchronize their military plans and work to resolve legal issues.
Japan’s public opinion toward China has worsened
During the last couple of years, Japan’s public opinion toward China has deteriorated. This is mainly because of territorial disputes between the two countries. However, Japan is not the only country that has negative public opinion towards China. The United States and South Korea also have negative perceptions towards China.
In fact, a recent joint opinion poll between Chinese and Japanese people showed that Chinese public opinion toward Japan has deteriorated even more. The survey, which targeted a total of 1,500 Chinese and 1,000 Japanese citizens, found that 87 percent of Chinese citizens had a negative opinion of Japan, while only 30 percent of Chinese had a positive impression of the country.
The poll also found that Chinese public opinion toward Japan has deteriorated by a whopping 9.2 percent in the last year. The main reason for the decline is the Senkaku Islands dispute, which saw the number of tourists plummet as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Despite the declining opinion of the Chinese public, Japanese public opinion toward China is actually quite high. A survey conducted by the Cabinet Office found that 80.6 percent of Japanese respondents felt no friendship toward China, while 66.1% agreed with the statement that “Japan-China relations are important”.
A recent poll, conducted by the non-profit think tank Genron NPO, shows that 81 percent of Republicans and 81 percent of Democrats agree that the United States should strengthen its efforts to defend its allies, including Japan. In addition, the poll found that 35 percent of Japanese respondents agree with the statement that “Japan should improve its cooperation with China in order to maintain a stable global economy.”
The Genron NPO poll also asked questions about economic cooperation and East Asian security. The results showed that 55% of Japanese respondents believed that Japan should not favor one side or the other in the US-China conflict, while 37.9% believed that China should be involved in the US-China conflict.
The Genron NPO poll is widely seen as the most comprehensive survey of Japanese and Chinese public opinion toward each other. However, there are still a number of important factors that need to be considered before making assumptions about Japanese public opinion.
Japan’s legal framework for addressing contingencies
Various scenarios are possible in the event of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. It is possible for Japan to respond in several different ways. However, it is unlikely that Japan would use force in defense of Taiwan. This would put Tokyo into direct conflict with China and create an untenable situation for Japan. Despite the fact that Japan has bases in Taiwan, the government has not made any specific commitment to help the United States defend Taiwan.
It is important to examine Japan’s legal framework for addressing Taiwan contingencies. While there are no specific laws addressing this issue, it is important to understand Japanese interpretations of international law. Defending Taiwan would not be considered a legitimate collective self-defense under the United Nations Charter. It would be a violation of Japan’s legal rights and obligations.
In the event of a potential Chinese invasion of the island, Tokyo could be confronted with an attack that threatens the lives of Japanese citizens. It would also jeopardize Japan’s defenses and could affect U.S. power in the region. A successful invasion of Taiwan could create a situation in which China could attack Japanese supply chains and supply bases.
Japan is concerned about a range of threats to international peace. Those threats include Taiwan, which China does not recognize as a separate country. China has continued to increase its pressure on Taiwan. In addition, Japan is addressing threats to its own security. Japan’s political environment remains deeply rooted in a “pacifist” mindset. Japan’s political leaders have made unusual high-profile statements about Taiwan. These statements have led to a debate about Japan’s future response to Taiwan.
The government of Japan is currently conducting a review of its Taiwan contingency options. This review will examine the implications of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Japan is also examining whether an attack on Taiwan would negatively impact the international order. The results of the review will be used to create a more robust understanding of Taiwan scenarios among the Diet. However, Japan is still in the early stages of the review, so it is possible that the Diet may not understand all of the scenarios.