3 Ways Russian Invasion of Ukraine will End

Russian invasion of Ukraine

To counter NATO’s threat in the neighborhood, Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. The war has been going on for the past 11 days, and Russia is gradually moving towards Kyiv (maybe Kiev in some weeks), and all three Ukrainian nuclear power plants have been captured. Every war, like life, has a beginning and an end. In one of our last articles, we discussed why the Russia – Ukraine war began, and today let’s explore 3 Ways this invasion could end in the future. 

  1. Partition of Ukraine: As per leaked documents currently available on web.archive, Putin wants to go ahead with the complete military conquest of Ukraine followed by a partition and a massive purge of the civilian population. In 11 days of the war, Russia has claimed control of numerous Ukrainian southern cities.  The Soviet Union put much of its arms industry in eastern Ukraine historically. Free Ukraine ranks as one of the top 10 arms exporters globally, and Russia is its most significant customer. Antonov military transport aircraft are made in eastern Ukraine, as are the motors for Russia’s helicopters and the anti-aircraft missiles harbored by its fighter planes. Russia desperately wants to annex this east Ukraine side in order to gain back the arms industry that it lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union. So, the war might end after Russia divides Ukraine and takes over the Eastern Part of the nation.
  2. Nuclear War: A less likely but potentially dangerous outcome of the war is a Global Nuclear War Angle. Russia took away Ukraine’s nukes, promising peace. However, decades of political assassinations, invasion threats, and raids followed. If there’s free movement of Western arms and ammunition in Ukraine, it will be hard for Russia to annex Kyiv. The cost of the war for Russia is approximately $2 billion per day. If the war goes on for a few more weeks, an upset Russia might be forced to go nuclear. Yes, it seems far-fetched but remember this – there are sanctions in place in Russia; countries are being banned from trading with Moscow as we speak. An Isolated Russia is not acceptable to Putin and his leadership. If Russia nukes Ukraine out of desperation and NATO finally retaliates, the world will see 10,000 nuclear weapons flying in the sky. World End scenario? Most likely.
  3. Russia joins NATO: No, I am not insane. The NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) was created in 1949 by the United States, Canada, and several Western European nations to provide collective security against the Soviet Union. In other words, NATO was created to fight the Soviet Union collectively. It has been a cause of insecurity for the Russian leadership. The reason for Moscow’s hostile stance against Ukraine potentially joining NATO is simple, Russia doesn’t want enemies encircling them so near to its borders and hence the invasion. Russia fears Nato has been infringing on its territory by taking on new members in eastern Europe and that accepting Ukraine would bring Nato forces into its backyard. To remove Moscow’s insecurities, NATO must either pledge not to militarise Ukraine (however ship has sailed for this) or make Russia its member. As the world looks right now, it might seem like stupidity to suggest Russia be invited to join Nato. However, that could potentially stop a war. The current crisis in Ukraine climax someday. And yet Putin’s feeling of being threatened by the West – imagined or not – will not disappear. Europe will need a new safety framework within which to work. If presenting this proposal now could stop him in his tracks and end his insecurities, why not try.

The other thing is that both Russia and the Americans will have more than 5,000 nuclear warheads and no meaningful mechanism to oversee or regulate them. All trust has gone.

An invitation to incorporate Russia into Europe’s future would also send a powerful signal that the Americans do not wish to demonize all Russians and are ready to work together for world peace. 

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