What is Ecological Forecasting?

Guys, it’s slipping, our buttery hands that have “unsustainable methods” as the main ingredient is causing a loose grip of  Man on this very place that we call home, with Global Warming, increasing temperature, ever-increasing population, strange weather patterns, pollution, and behavioral issues, soon we are going to hit 9 billion, this huge number will be present on Earth at the same time along with the aforementioned adversities. A population of 9 billion means that many stomachs to feed, but due to the above-mentioned reasons the agriculture and agro-products are quite hard hit making it tough to feed the current population, how are we going to feed 9B?

A lot of farmers suffer due to the unprecedented causes that damage their crops and leave a majority of farmers in misery, currently, many regions in Africa are affected the worse and it just a matter of time when the same phenomenon occurs, globally hitting an agrarian county like India.

Ecological forecasting can be regarded as a brand new way of looking at ecology by using various data and models that can predict the climate variability, habitat change, impacts of pollution, extreme weather conditions, and how all of this will impact the communities (particularly farmer) and economies.

Ecological forecasting is similar to weather forecasting with a slight difference that instead of predicting weather a few days from now, ecological forecasting predicts a pattern for a longer duration by studying the interaction of organism and environment.

Ecological forecasting can help to predict the change in the environment and ecosystem, and help to find an answer to a query like what or which crop will be most profitable next year or say 5 years or 10 years from now.

Scientist can use the data collected from the past and present in the combination of a series of equations or models to predict the nature of an ecosystem, a feasible method is to design a model based on historical data for example a scientist can collect data from 1960 and predict a forecast using the model and then compare it with data collected in 2010 this way the models can be formed for ‘n’ number of years and each new generation of a scientist can work upon it to improve and provide accuracy to the prediction.

How to check the accuracy of prediction?

It is quite a not so complicated task to check the accuracy of a prediction or model, what we need to do is collect historical data to predict near future say 6 months, and give a prediction then 6 months later we can again collect the data to check the accuracy of the forecast and improve the accuracy of models if needed.

If utilized to its maximum potential it can be applied to a wide variety of sectors. Ecological forecasting can help predict crop production 10 years from now or predict the diseases that will damage the crops 10 years, 50 years from now and this can help the farmers to plan accordingly.

Call for Action

After the Abraham Accords, it seems possible to establish a tri-lateral relation between Israel, India, and UAE to work on various aspects of Ecological forecasting like new data collection, new technology, or innovations, it will be a good base to establish a nearby look west policy, that can be beneficial for all 3 countries, currently, UAE is trying to claim its place as an efficient Arab soft power and transitioning its oil-based to a STEM-based economy an issue like EF can definitely provide a boost to the endeavors of  UAE. Israel can work to establish supremacy and dominance in the sector of agri-tech and as for India, this can help the Indian PM’s vision of doubling the income of our farmers and help prepare the farmers community for the worst. If such relationship based on “forecasting” comes into existence that would reduce our dependency on the US, China and Russia, and together the amalgamation of the newly formed trio can help the farmers of Africa and help UN to achieve its agenda of sustainable goals.

Remember people,

“Nature can exist without man but man can never exist without nature”
Together we can and we will Save our Planet!

Source and Reference:
YouTube: Ecological Forecasting: The Science of Predicting Ecosystems; NEON Science

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