Australia’s central bank held its cash rate at a record low on Tuesday but hinted at further monetary easing as it looks to create jobs in the coronavirus-ravaged economy, which is suffering its worst contraction since the Great Depression.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the rate unchanged at an all-time low of 0.25%, as widely expected in our poll. The central bank also affirmed its target for three-year bonds and the recently increased cheap funding program for lenders, but signalled it was considering other measures to boost activity.
“The Board views addressing the high rate of unemployment as an important national priority,” RBA Governor Philip Lowe said in a statement announcing the outcome of the policy meeting.
“The Board continues to consider how additional monetary easing could support jobs as the economy opens up further.”
The decision comes just hours before the government is due to release its budget for 2020/21, where it is expected to announce a record deficit of around A$200 billion ($143 billion) as it boosts spending and welfare.
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said the focus on the labour market showed the RBA’s concern about the risk of a sustained period of joblessness.
He said this backed his view that the cash rate and three-year target bond rate would be cut to 0.1 percent at the November meeting, with the RBA also to commit to buying bonds with maturities of 5-10 years.
“From our perspective, there is considerable encouragement that the (RBA) Board plans to move next month having given the federal government clear air to sell its budget tonight,” Evans said.
The central bank’s decision to hold fire comes after it last month boosted the size of its term funding facility to around A$200 billion.
Economists polled by us last week forecast the RBA to deliver a 15 basis point cut to 0.1% in November. [AU/INT]
Lowe said public sector balance sheets were “in good shape”, which meant there was capacity for the government to fund the extra support expected in the budget.
“Both fiscal and monetary support will be required for some time given the outlook for the economy and the prospect of high unemployment,” he said.