Germany expects the economic devastation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to be less severe than originally feared this year, but it sees a weaker rebound for Europe’s largest economy next year due to sluggish foreign demand.
Presenting the government’s updated forecasts on Tuesday, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said the economy was doing better than expected and was recovering quickly from the coronavirus shock thanks to a strong response from the state.
“Overall, we can say that at least for now, we are dealing with a V-shaped development,” Altmaier told reporters, adding that he did not expect authorities to impose another round of lockdown measures as in March and April.
Confirming an earlier NYK Daily report, Altmaier said Berlin had revised upwards its 2020 forecast to a decline of 5.8% from a previous estimate of 6.3%.
Still, this would represent the biggest economic slump since the end of World War Two. During the global financial crisis, the economy contracted by 5.7% in 2009.
For 2021, the government revised downward its growth forecast to an expansion of 4.4% from its previous estimate of 5.2%. This means the economy will not reach its pre-pandemic size before early 2022, Altmaier said.
The government expects exports to tumble by 12.2% this year before jumping by 8.8% in 2021. Private consumption is seen falling by 6.9% this year and then rising by 4.7% in 2021.
SUSPENDING DEBT LIMITS
The revised forecasts will form the basis of tax revenue estimates, which the finance ministry is expected to update next week. This will be followed by Finance Minister Olaf Scholz’s proposal for the federal government’s budget in 2021.
Scholz has already said he will ask parliament to suspend constitutionally enshrined debt limits next year so that the government can plan its 2021 budget with new debt as it sees necessary.
Germany’s Bundestag lower house of parliament already suspended the debt limit in March and June to allow the government to record new debt of 217.8 billion euros this year.
The government has launched an unprecedented array of rescue and stimulus measures since March to shield companies and consumers from the initial impact of the pandemic and help them recover as quickly as possible.
The economy contracted by a record 9.7% in the second quarter as consumer spending, company investment and exports all collapsed.
Still, Germany fared better than some other euro zone economies. The French economy contracted by 13.8% quarter-on-quarter in the April-June period and Italy’s shrank by 12.8%.